Weekly Outlook ES - 6/29/25
S&P Insights
For New Readers: This newsletter is aimed at capturing day to day value shifts on the S&P futures market. This is done through a process I’ve developed over the past several years by uncovering high probability price levels & scenarios for the next trading session. That’s the scope. The process and training is detailed in the link below. If you’re new here, please read this first:
Macro Recap:
Last week finished as a wildly bullish outside week taking out the prior all time high print of 6166.5 set back in February 18th (non adjusted contract). This move completes the broader timeframe auction and price is now in discovery mode seeking new value.
The prior struggles to gain a foothold above 6000 were absolutely blown out last week in the face of massive middle east tensions, while simultaneously crude oil dropped. For the amount of hype and headlines driven over the past two weeks on this you’d expect the opposite but the market thus far has shrugged it off.
Interesting to note, last week’s move was built on low volume and Friday’s move in particular was built on weak buyers. To kick off the Sunday night futures open the bulls are leading the charge pushing above prior week high as I write this.
The question to answer this week is whether or not the bullish surge holds and continues, or if we dip back underneath the prior ATH for a pullback, or rotation scenario.
Some pricing catalysts to be on the lookout for the week:
Israel/Iran/US conflict developments
Big Beautiful Bill status
Trade talks
Chairman Powell on the books to speak again
Non-farm Payrolls
Lets identify some key areas price may be seeking:
Monthly Chart: Wildly bullish expansion month to finish up this week and quite the bullish change from last week’s outlook.
Weekly Chart: On down to the weekly chart we can see last week completely engulfing the week prior, pushing into new pricing.
Daily chart: On down to the daily we can see the day by day bullish continuation candles stacked over one another. And in the wake of that bullish push we can see two daily inefficient gaps to watch for next week as pullback areas.
On down to the 1hr volume profile. Last wee you can see the new all time highs were breached and held that first pullback. Bullish trending week now attempting to seek buyers at these prices.
News:
Let’s look at the week’s high impact news schedule:
This week’s earnings set to release:
Weekly Levels of Interest (reference the 1hr volume profile chart as a visual):
If the bulls can hold above last week’s POC, price likely will make an attempt to push into that weekly target (green zone)
If the bulls fail in this new price exploration to hold PWH, prior ATH and fail that 6145 POC, likely price moves to rebalance that lower daily gap/thin print combo and possibly even attempt a run to the prior week lows
** Price will likely not follow this exact path, this is just a projection of scenarios I’d like to see develop**
I’ll have my Premarket Rundown, available with a premium subscription, before tomorrow’s market open to dial in the day’s specific levels.
-Dan
None of this constitutes financial advice, these are merely my opinions, strategies and insights that I personally use to trade the S&P 500 and are for educational purposes only. This is not an offer or recommendation to trade futures, stocks, options or forex.
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