For New Readers: This newsletter is aimed at capturing day to day value shifts on the S&P futures market. This is done through a process I’ve developed over the past several years by uncovering high probability price levels & trading scenarios for the next trading session. That’s the scope. The process and training is detailed in the link below. If you’re new here, please read this first:
Here’s this morning’s levels & plan sent out to premium members at 8:22am CST before the bell:
ES Plan:
“Overnight + NFP has pushed prices up near 6300 on a bullish run overnight. 70 point range on the week with a continual and gradual stair step up notching into new highs followed by pullbacks producing higher lows. 26 point overnight range, will look to see if that range holds, expands or retraces back into weekly value.
During exploration into new price territory, be sure to exercise caution playing breakouts/breakdowns. Setup, violent break of that setup, retest and a trigger. New ATH’s tends to deliver a few false breakouts/breakdowns as price finishes this leg of the broader auction.”
Today’s Levels/Triggers I’m Initially Watching:
Price holds (or quickly recovers) above 6270 look for 6296 to break out (cash session) for that bullish trigger. With sustained bullish flow look for 6313, 6330, and possibly 6350 thereafter.
Price fails 6296/6300, look for a breakdown below 6270 for that bearish trigger. With sustained selling here, look for 6260, 6248 and possibly 6227 thereafter.
Bullish break triggered today, 2 targets met, 34 points of fertile ground to look for expansion entries.
Daily Recap:
Bullish rip off the non farm payrolls, carried right into the cash session open where price again skyrocketed across all the indices from the opening bell If you blinked you missed it… and I blinked. ES and NQ pushing deeper into new all time highs, Dow coming up a bit short of the ATH and the Russell still a bit left to go before an ATH. This morning’s session is what I would refer to as a parabolic opening run. No pull backs, just a straight shot into deeper all time highs. Very difficult to take these into the unknown.
The daily pattern from the week is the following:
🟢Monday - Bullish Continuation day
🟢Tuesday - Slight bullish inside day
🟢Wednesday - Slight bullish day above PDH
🟢Thursday - Bullish expansion into deeper ath
Friday - Happy Fourth of July! Summer’s half over!
Lets look at today’s charts.
Today’s Charts:
Here’s the daily candle chart showing today’s bullish expansion right into the weekly target from the Weekly Outlook. 9 straight days of green.
On down to the 30m volume profile you can see today’s all go no quit bullish rip taking out target 2.
This week’s setup and areas of interest:
Upcoming High Impact News:
Earnings releases set for next week:
I’ll have my Premarket Rundown, available with a premium subscription, before Monday’s market open to dial in the specific key levels to watch.
Level to Level Trading Setup Example:
My trading technique revolves around setting high quality, data driven levels and then assessing price action & direction, along with buyers & sellers at those levels once price arrives.
**No trades today, missed the breakout never got a pullback, this is from last Friday**
Failed breakdown trade off the open. Price dipped a bit with aggressive sellers who were all absorbed by buyers on the opening 8:40 candle. Price recovered, closed through VWAP, and broke the overnight NY cash session premarket downtrend. Entered at the top of the opening candle and was filled long on the way up. 8.5 point trade here.
This is level to level trading. For video examples of executions like this head to my YouTube channel at youtube.com/@therealtraderdan.
Levels are derived from a macro analysis along with volume profiling, a technique I’ve developed over the past several years and share within this newsletter. Entries are executed on an analysis of price action and Order Flow footprint charts. To learn both order flow footprint and volume profile trading, again head over to youtube.com/@therealtraderdan and check out both series for free.
None of this constitutes financial advice, these are merely my opinions, strategies and insights that I personally use to trade the S&P 500 and are for educational purposes only. This is not an offer or recommendation to trade futures, stocks, options or forex.
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